Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4–0 PE Sant Jordi

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

PE Sant Jordi

Cristian Terán 87'

Gorka Ramón 85'

G. Simeone 64', 7'

5/15/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas62%

×Draw22%

PE Sant Jordi16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchPE Sant Jordi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.81

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.85

PE Sant Jordi

0.81

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 128% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 65 away

2.14

creates per match

1.18

0.44

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

PE Sant Jordi

1.18

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

PE Sant Jordi

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

PE Sant Jordi →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

84%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or PE Sant Jordi

78%

Draw or PE Sant Jordi

38%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

36%

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

84%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

55%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

28%

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

56%

PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

19%

PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

80%

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

62%

level

22%

PE Sant Jordi scores more

16%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

G. Simeone

46'

Gorka Ramón← Iván Sales

58'

Carella← David Ferrer

62'

Omar Álvarez← Kike Fajarnes

64'

G. Simeone

66'

Roger← Rafa Llop

72'

Onofre Riera← Moreno

72'

F. Losada← E. Franco

72'

Ren Kurosawa← Rubén Sánchez

72'

Mario Mourelo← Sandro

78'

Dani← Marcos Contreras

85'

87'

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: Alberto Gallego

46'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Iván Sales

62'▲Omar Álvarez←▼Kike Fajarnes

72'▲Onofre Riera←▼Moreno

72'▲F. Losada←▼E. Franco

78'▲Dani←▼Marcos Contreras

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

RamónÁlvarezRieraLosadaDani

Manager: David Escandell

58'▲Carella←▼David Ferrer

66'▲Roger←▼Rafa Llop

72'▲Ren Kurosawa←▼Rubén Sánchez

72'▲Mario Mourelo←▼Sandro

PE Sant Jordi substitutes

CarellaRogerKurosawaMourelo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4–0 PE Sant Jordi

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat PE Sant Jordi 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 15, 2021.

Goals: G. Simeone (7', 64'), Gorka Ramón (85'), Cristian Terán (87').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4–0 PE Sant Jordi