PE Sant Jordi 5–0 Esporles: Result & Stats

PE Sant Jordi

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esporles

2/27/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Campo Municipal Kiko Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

PE Sant Jordi58%

×Draw23%

Esporles19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PE Sant JordiExpected goals in this matchEsporles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.90

PE Sant Jordi

1.76

Esporles

0.90

PE Sant Jordi creates 96% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 28 away

1.34

creates per match

0.57

1.23

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

PE Sant Jordi

1.34

Esporles

0.57

allows per match

PE Sant Jordi

1.23

Esporles

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PE Sant Jordi ↓

Esporles →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

PE Sant Jordi or draw

81%

PE Sant Jordi or Esporles

77%

Draw or Esporles

42%

Winning margin

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

33%

Esporles wins by 2+

Team goals

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

83%

PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

52%

PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

26%

Esporles 1+ goals

59%

Esporles 2+ goals

23%

Esporles 3+ goals

Draw no bet

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

75%

Esporles (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

PE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.34 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Esporles attack 0.57 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

PE Sant Jordi scores more

58%

level

23%

Esporles scores more

19%

PE Sant Jordi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff