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Esporles vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Esporles
Esporles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
11/21/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Son Quint Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Esporles30%
×Draw23%
PE Sant Jordi47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esporles
1.38
PE Sant Jordi
1.79

PE Sant Jordi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 65 away

creates per match

Esporles
1.21
PE Sant Jordi
1.18

allows per match

Esporles
2.41
PE Sant Jordi
1.55

finishing

Esporles+0.00on par
PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esporles ↓

PE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Esporles or draw
53%
Esporles or PE Sant Jordi
77%
Draw or PE Sant Jordi
70%

Winning margin

Esporles wins by 2+
13%
PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Esporles 1+ goals
75%
Esporles 2+ goals
40%
Esporles 3+ goals
16%
PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
83%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
53%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Esporles (draw refunded)
39%
PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esporles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.41 · 29 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esporles attack 1.21 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Esporles defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esporles scores more
30%
level
23%
PE Sant Jordi scores more
47%

PE Sant Jordi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esporles vs PE Sant Jordi

Esporles and PE Sant Jordi drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Son Quint Estadio in Esporles.