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PDX vs Oly Town — USL League Two 2018

PDX
PDX
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oly Town
Oly Town
5/28/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 15Eastside Timbers Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

PDX44%
×Draw20%
Oly Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PDX
2.21
Oly Town
2.00

PDX creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

PDX
1.89
Oly Town
1.49

allows per match

PDX
2.50
Oly Town
2.54

finishing

PDX+0.00on par
Oly Town+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PDX ↓

Oly Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

PDX or draw
64%
PDX or Oly Town
80%
Draw or Oly Town
56%

Winning margin

PDX wins by 2+
25%
Oly Town wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

PDX 1+ goals
89%
PDX 2+ goals
65%
PDX 3+ goals
38%
Oly Town 1+ goals
86%
Oly Town 2+ goals
59%
Oly Town 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

PDX (draw refunded)
55%
Oly Town (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PDX at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Oly Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.54 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PDX attack 1.89 + Oly Town defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.21

Oly Town attack 1.49 + PDX defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PDX scores more
44%
level
20%
Oly Town scores more
36%

PDX at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PDX vs Oly Town

PDX beat Oly Town 2-1 in USL League Two on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Eastside Timbers Sports Complex in Portland, Oregon.