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Oly Town vs PDX — USL League Two 2018

Oly Town
Oly Town
FT
3 – 0
PDX
PDX
5/14/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 2South Sound Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Oly Town51%
×Draw21%
PDX28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oly Town
2.15
PDX
1.56

Oly Town creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Oly Town
1.70
PDX
1.28

allows per match

Oly Town
1.85
PDX
2.61

finishing

Oly Town+0.00on par
PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oly Town ↓

PDX →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Oly Town or draw
72%
Oly Town or PDX
79%
Draw or PDX
49%

Winning margin

Oly Town wins by 2+
30%
PDX wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oly Town 1+ goals
88%
Oly Town 2+ goals
63%
Oly Town 3+ goals
36%
PDX 1+ goals
79%
PDX 2+ goals
46%
PDX 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Oly Town (draw refunded)
64%
PDX (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oly Town at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

PDX away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oly Town attack 1.70 + PDX defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.15

PDX attack 1.28 + Oly Town defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oly Town scores more
51%
level
21%
PDX scores more
28%

Oly Town at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oly Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oly Town vs PDX

Oly Town beat PDX 3-0 in USL League Two on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at South Sound Stadium in Lacey, Washington.