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Pdrm vs Negeri Sembilan — Malaysia Cup 2019

Pdrm
Pdrm
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilanadvanced
11/29/2024Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Majlis Perbandaran Selayang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pdrm25%
×Draw19%
Negeri Sembilan56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pdrm
1.71
Negeri Sembilan
2.58

Negeri Sembilan creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pdrm
1.43
Negeri Sembilan
1.31

allows per match

Pdrm
3.86
Negeri Sembilan
2.00

finishing

Pdrm+0.00on par
Negeri Sembilan+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pdrm ↓

Negeri Sembilan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Pdrm or draw
44%
Pdrm or Negeri Sembilan
81%
Draw or Negeri Sembilan
75%

Winning margin

Pdrm wins by 2+
12%
Negeri Sembilan wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Pdrm 1+ goals
82%
Pdrm 2+ goals
51%
Pdrm 3+ goals
24%
Negeri Sembilan 1+ goals
92%
Negeri Sembilan 2+ goals
72%
Negeri Sembilan 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Pdrm (draw refunded)
31%
Negeri Sembilan (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pdrm at home — creates 1.43, concedes 3.86 · 7 matches

Negeri Sembilan away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pdrm attack 1.43 + Negeri Sembilan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Negeri Sembilan attack 1.31 + Pdrm defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pdrm scores more
25%
level
19%
Negeri Sembilan scores more
56%

Negeri Sembilan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Negeri Sembilan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pdrm vs Negeri Sembilan

Negeri Sembilan beat Pdrm 3-0 in Malaysia Cup on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadium Majlis Perbandaran Selayang in Selayang.