Negeri Sembilan 1–2 Pdrm: Result & Stats

Negeri Sembilan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Pdrm

11/24/2024

Malaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Negeri Sembilan35%

×Draw27%

Pdrm38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Negeri SembilanExpected goals in this matchPdrm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

Negeri Sembilan

1.23

Pdrm

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.18

creates per match

0.86

1.73

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Negeri Sembilan

1.18

Pdrm

0.86

allows per match

Negeri Sembilan

1.73

Pdrm

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Negeri Sembilan+0.00on par

Pdrm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Negeri Sembilan ↓

Pdrm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Negeri Sembilan or draw

62%

Negeri Sembilan or Pdrm

73%

Draw or Pdrm

65%

Winning margin

Negeri Sembilan wins by 2+

15%

Pdrm wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Negeri Sembilan 1+ goals

71%

Negeri Sembilan 2+ goals

35%

Negeri Sembilan 3+ goals

13%

Pdrm 1+ goals

72%

Pdrm 2+ goals

37%

Pdrm 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Negeri Sembilan (draw refunded)

48%

Pdrm (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Negeri Sembilan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Pdrm away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Negeri Sembilan attack 1.18 + Pdrm defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pdrm attack 0.86 + Negeri Sembilan defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Negeri Sembilan scores more

35%

level

27%

Pdrm scores more

38%

Pdrm at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pdrm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff