Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pčinja Trgovište vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
FT
3 – 2
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
10/7/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište78%
×Draw13%
Moravac Mrštane9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pčinja Trgovište
3.10
Moravac Mrštane
1.00

Pčinja Trgovište creates 210% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 28 away

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište
2.03
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište
1.22
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw
91%
Pčinja Trgovište or Moravac Mrštane
87%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
22%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
59%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
95%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
81%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
58%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
63%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
26%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
90%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.10

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more
78%
level
13%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
9%

Pčinja Trgovište at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pčinja Trgovište vs Moravac Mrštane

Pčinja Trgovište beat Moravac Mrštane 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trgovište in Trgovište.