Moravac Mrštane 0–6 Pčinja Trgovište

Moravac Mrštane

FT

0 – 6

Pčinja Trgovište

4/24/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 30SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane27%

×Draw21%

Pčinja Trgovište52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moravac MrštaneExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

2.17

Moravac Mrštane

1.53

Pčinja Trgovište

2.17

Pčinja Trgovište creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 63 away

1.19

creates per match

1.11

3.22

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane

1.19

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane

3.22

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw

48%

Moravac Mrštane or Pčinja Trgovište

79%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

73%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+

12%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals

78%

Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals

45%

Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals

20%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

89%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

64%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)

34%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.53

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more

27%

level

21%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

52%

Pčinja Trgovište at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Moravac Mrštane 0–6 Pčinja Trgovište

Pčinja Trgovište beat Moravac Mrštane 6-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.

Moravac Mrštane vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Srpska Liga - East: Moravac Mrštane 0–6 Pčinja Trgovište