Pčinja Trgovište 1–0 Jedinstvo Kruševac

Pčinja Trgovište

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jedinstvo Kruševac

8/12/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište49%

×Draw25%

Jedinstvo Kruševac26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pčinja TrgovišteExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Kruševac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.09

Pčinja Trgovište

1.61

Jedinstvo Kruševac

1.09

Pčinja Trgovište creates 48% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 45 away

2.03

creates per match

0.96

1.22

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište

2.03

Jedinstvo Kruševac

0.96

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište

1.22

Jedinstvo Kruševac

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw

74%

Pčinja Trgovište or Jedinstvo Kruševac

75%

Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac

51%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

26%

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

80%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

48%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

22%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals

66%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals

30%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

66%

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.61

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

49%

level

25%

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more

26%

Pčinja Trgovište at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff