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Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
FT
1 – 0
Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
3/2/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 16Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac56%
×Draw22%
Pčinja Trgovište23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.96
Pčinja Trgovište
1.17

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 68% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 63 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
2.05
Pčinja Trgovište
1.11

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.23
Pčinja Trgovište
1.87

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par
Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw
77%
Jedinstvo Kruševac or Pčinja Trgovište
78%
Draw or Pčinja Trgovište
44%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
33%
Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
86%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
58%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
31%
Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
69%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
33%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
71%
Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
56%
level
22%
Pčinja Trgovište scores more
23%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Kruševac 1–0 Pčinja Trgovište

Jedinstvo Kruševac beat Pčinja Trgovište 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936 in Kruševac.