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Pčinja Trgovište vs Hajduk Veljko — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
FT
2 – 0
Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
6/5/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 30Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište64%
×Draw21%
Hajduk Veljko16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pčinja Trgovište
2.05
Hajduk Veljko
0.91

Pčinja Trgovište creates 125% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište
2.03
Hajduk Veljko
0.60

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište
1.22
Hajduk Veljko
2.07

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par
Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Hajduk Veljko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw
84%
Pčinja Trgovište or Hajduk Veljko
79%
Draw or Hajduk Veljko
36%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
39%
Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
87%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
61%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
33%
Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
60%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
23%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
80%
Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Hajduk Veljko away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Hajduk Veljko defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.05

Hajduk Veljko attack 0.60 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more
64%
level
21%
Hajduk Veljko scores more
16%

Pčinja Trgovište at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Pčinja Trgovište 2–0 Hajduk Veljko

Pčinja Trgovište beat Hajduk Veljko 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trgovište in Trgovište.