Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hajduk Veljko vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
FT
0 – 0
Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
11/21/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hajduk Veljko45%
×Draw26%
Pčinja Trgovište29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Veljko
1.50
Pčinja Trgovište
1.16

Hajduk Veljko creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 63 away

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.14
Pčinja Trgovište
1.11

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.21
Pčinja Trgovište
1.87

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par
Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw
71%
Hajduk Veljko or Pčinja Trgovište
74%
Draw or Pčinja Trgovište
55%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
22%
Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
78%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
44%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
19%
Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
69%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
32%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
61%
Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more
45%
level
26%
Pčinja Trgovište scores more
29%

Hajduk Veljko at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hajduk Veljko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk Veljko vs Pčinja Trgovište

Hajduk Veljko and Pčinja Trgovište drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Negotin.