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Pčinja Trgovište vs FK Trayal — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FK Trayal
FK Trayal
8/26/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 3Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište30%
×Draw25%
FK Trayal45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pčinja Trgovište
1.23
FK Trayal
1.56

FK Trayal creates 27% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište
2.03
FK Trayal
1.90

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište
1.22
FK Trayal
0.43

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par
FK Trayal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

FK Trayal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw
55%
Pčinja Trgovište or FK Trayal
75%
Draw or FK Trayal
70%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
13%
FK Trayal wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
71%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
35%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
13%
FK Trayal 1+ goals
79%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
46%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
40%
FK Trayal (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

FK Trayal away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + FK Trayal defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

FK Trayal attack 1.90 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more
30%
level
25%
FK Trayal scores more
45%

FK Trayal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pčinja Trgovište vs FK Trayal

FK Trayal beat Pčinja Trgovište 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trgovište in Trgovište.