FK Trayal 1–0 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

FK Trayal

FT

1 – 0

Pčinja Trgovište

8/21/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Trayal68%

×Draw19%

Pčinja Trgovište13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrayalExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.78

FK Trayal

2.13

Pčinja Trgovište

0.78

FK Trayal creates 173% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 63 away

2.38

creates per match

1.11

0.45

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

FK Trayal

2.38

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

FK Trayal

0.45

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw

87%

FK Trayal or Pčinja Trgovište

81%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

32%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+

44%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals

88%

FK Trayal 2+ goals

63%

FK Trayal 3+ goals

35%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

54%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

18%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)

84%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.13

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FK Trayal scores more

68%

level

19%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

13%

FK Trayal at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff