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Pčinja Trgovište vs Dunav Prahovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
FT
3 – 1
Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
2/27/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 19Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište56%
×Draw22%
Dunav Prahovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pčinja Trgovište
1.96
Dunav Prahovo
1.14

Pčinja Trgovište creates 72% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 79 away

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište
2.03
Dunav Prahovo
1.05

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište
1.22
Dunav Prahovo
1.90

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par
Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Dunav Prahovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw
78%
Pčinja Trgovište or Dunav Prahovo
78%
Draw or Dunav Prahovo
44%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
33%
Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
86%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
58%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
31%
Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
68%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
32%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
72%
Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more
56%
level
22%
Dunav Prahovo scores more
22%

Pčinja Trgovište at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Pčinja Trgovište 3–1 Dunav Prahovo

Pčinja Trgovište beat Dunav Prahovo 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trgovište in Trgovište.