Dunav Prahovo 1–0 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

Dunav Prahovo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pčinja Trgovište

5/13/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 26Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Dunav Prahovo53%

×Draw23%

Pčinja Trgovište23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav PrahovoExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.10

Dunav Prahovo

1.78

Pčinja Trgovište

1.10

Dunav Prahovo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 63 away

1.69

creates per match

1.11

1.09

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo

1.69

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo

1.09

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw

77%

Dunav Prahovo or Pčinja Trgovište

77%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

47%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

30%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

83%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

53%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

26%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

67%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

30%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

69%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.78

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more

53%

level

23%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

23%

Dunav Prahovo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Prahovo vs Pčinja Trgovište

Dunav Prahovo beat Pčinja Trgovište 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.

Dunav Prahovo vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dunav Prahovo vs Pčinja Trgovište