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Pčinja Trgovište vs Dubočica — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dubočica
Dubočica
4/2/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 20Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište41%
×Draw25%
Dubočica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pčinja Trgovište
1.55
Dubočica
1.40

Pčinja Trgovište creates 11% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 37 away

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište
2.03
Dubočica
1.57

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište
1.22
Dubočica
1.08

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw
66%
Pčinja Trgovište or Dubočica
75%
Draw or Dubočica
59%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
20%
Dubočica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
79%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
46%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
20%
Dubočica 1+ goals
75%
Dubočica 2+ goals
41%
Dubočica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
54%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Dubočica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Dubočica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dubočica attack 1.57 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more
41%
level
25%
Dubočica scores more
34%

Pčinja Trgovište at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pčinja Trgovište vs Dubočica

Pčinja Trgovište beat Dubočica 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trgovište in Trgovište.