Dubočica 2–1 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

Dubočica

FT

2 – 1

Pčinja Trgovište

9/11/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 5Gradski stadion pod Hisarom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dubočica60%

×Draw21%

Pčinja Trgovište19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DubočicaExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.04

Dubočica

2.04

Pčinja Trgovište

1.04

Dubočica creates 96% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 63 away

2.21

creates per match

1.11

0.97

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Dubočica

2.21

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Dubočica

0.97

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw

81%

Dubočica or Pčinja Trgovište

79%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

40%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+

37%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals

87%

Dubočica 2+ goals

60%

Dubočica 3+ goals

33%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

65%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

28%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)

76%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 2.21 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Dubočica defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dubočica scores more

60%

level

21%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

19%

Dubočica at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff