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Pčinja Trgovište vs Dinamo Vranje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
FT
1 – 1
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
9/18/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 6Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište64%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Vranje15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pčinja Trgovište
1.94
Dinamo Vranje
0.82

Pčinja Trgovište creates 137% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište
2.03
Dinamo Vranje
0.43

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište
1.22
Dinamo Vranje
1.86

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw
85%
Pčinja Trgovište or Dinamo Vranje
79%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
36%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
38%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
86%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
58%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
30%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
20%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
81%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.43 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more
64%
level
21%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
15%

Pčinja Trgovište at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pčinja Trgovište vs Dinamo Vranje

Pčinja Trgovište and Dinamo Vranje drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trgovište in Trgovište.