Dinamo Vranje vs Pčinja Trgovište

Dinamo Vranje

CANC

14:00

Pčinja Trgovište

4/9/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 21Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Vranje52%

×Draw22%

Pčinja Trgovište26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.31

Dinamo Vranje

1.94

Pčinja Trgovište

1.31

Dinamo Vranje creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 63 away

2.00

creates per match

1.11

1.50

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

2.00

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

74%

Dinamo Vranje or Pčinja Trgovište

78%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

30%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

30%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

73%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

38%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

67%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 2.00 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

52%

level

22%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

26%

Dinamo Vranje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff