Pčinja Trgovište 1–2 Car Konstantin: Result & Stats

Pčinja Trgovište

FT

1 – 2

Car Konstantin

4/28/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 31Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište59%

×Draw20%

Car Konstantin20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pčinja TrgovišteExpected goals in this matchCar Konstantin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.21

Pčinja Trgovište

2.19

Car Konstantin

1.21

Pčinja Trgovište creates 81% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 42 away

2.03

creates per match

1.19

1.22

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište

2.03

Car Konstantin

1.19

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište

1.22

Car Konstantin

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Car Konstantin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw

80%

Pčinja Trgovište or Car Konstantin

80%

Draw or Car Konstantin

41%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

37%

Car Konstantin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

89%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

64%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

37%

Car Konstantin 1+ goals

70%

Car Konstantin 2+ goals

34%

Car Konstantin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

74%

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.19

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

59%

level

20%

Car Konstantin scores more

20%

Pčinja Trgovište at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff