Car Konstantin 1–1 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

Car Konstantin

FT

1 – 1

Pčinja Trgovište

10/11/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 12Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Car Konstantin47%

×Draw23%

Pčinja Trgovište29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Car KonstantinExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.35

Car Konstantin

1.77

Pčinja Trgovište

1.35

Car Konstantin creates 31% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 63 away

1.67

creates per match

1.11

1.60

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Car Konstantin

1.67

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Car Konstantin

1.60

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw

71%

Car Konstantin or Pčinja Trgovište

77%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

53%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+

26%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals

83%

Car Konstantin 2+ goals

53%

Car Konstantin 3+ goals

26%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

74%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

39%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)

62%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Car Konstantin scores more

47%

level

23%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

29%

Car Konstantin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff