Pčinja Trgovište 1–1 Budućnost Popovac

Pčinja Trgovište

FT

1 – 1

Budućnost Popovac

3/9/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište47%

×Draw24%

Budućnost Popovac29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pčinja TrgovišteExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Popovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.31

Pčinja Trgovište

1.74

Budućnost Popovac

1.31

Pčinja Trgovište creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 87 away

2.03

creates per match

1.40

1.22

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište

2.03

Budućnost Popovac

1.40

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište

1.22

Budućnost Popovac

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Budućnost Popovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw

71%

Pčinja Trgovište or Budućnost Popovac

76%

Draw or Budućnost Popovac

53%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

25%

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

82%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

52%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

25%

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

73%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

38%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

62%

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.74

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

47%

level

24%

Budućnost Popovac scores more

29%

Pčinja Trgovište at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff