Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Budućnost Popovac vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
0 – 0
Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
4/2/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 20Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Budućnost Popovac55%
×Draw23%
Pčinja Trgovište22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
1.85
Pčinja Trgovište
1.09

Budućnost Popovac creates 70% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 63 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Pčinja Trgovište
1.11

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Pčinja Trgovište
1.87

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
78%
Budućnost Popovac or Pčinja Trgovište
77%
Draw or Pčinja Trgovište
45%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
31%
Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
84%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
55%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
28%
Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
66%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
30%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
71%
Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
55%
level
23%
Pčinja Trgovište scores more
22%

Budućnost Popovac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Budućnost Popovac 0–0 Pčinja Trgovište

Budućnost Popovac and Pčinja Trgovište drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Begavica in Popovac.