Pčinja Trgovište 0–0 Brzi Brod: Result & Stats

Pčinja Trgovište

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brzi Brod

8/13/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište56%

×Draw22%

Brzi Brod22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pčinja TrgovišteExpected goals in this matchBrzi Brod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.17

Pčinja Trgovište

1.98

Brzi Brod

1.17

Pčinja Trgovište creates 69% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 60 away

2.03

creates per match

1.13

1.22

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište

2.03

Brzi Brod

1.13

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište

1.22

Brzi Brod

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Brzi Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Brzi Brod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw

78%

Pčinja Trgovište or Brzi Brod

78%

Draw or Brzi Brod

44%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

33%

Brzi Brod wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

86%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

59%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

31%

Brzi Brod 1+ goals

69%

Brzi Brod 2+ goals

33%

Brzi Brod 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

72%

Brzi Brod (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Brzi Brod away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Brzi Brod defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

Brzi Brod attack 1.13 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

56%

level

22%

Brzi Brod scores more

22%

Pčinja Trgovište at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff