Brzi Brod 0–1 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

Brzi Brod

FT

0 – 1

Pčinja Trgovište

10/24/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion OFK Brzi Brod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Brzi Brod52%

×Draw24%

Pčinja Trgovište25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brzi BrodExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.14

Brzi Brod

1.75

Pčinja Trgovište

1.14

Brzi Brod creates 54% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 63 away

1.64

creates per match

1.11

1.16

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Brzi Brod

1.64

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Brzi Brod

1.16

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brzi Brod+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brzi Brod ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Brzi Brod or draw

75%

Brzi Brod or Pčinja Trgovište

76%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

48%

Winning margin

Brzi Brod wins by 2+

28%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brzi Brod 1+ goals

83%

Brzi Brod 2+ goals

52%

Brzi Brod 3+ goals

25%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

68%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

32%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brzi Brod (draw refunded)

68%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brzi Brod at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brzi Brod attack 1.64 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Brzi Brod defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brzi Brod scores more

52%

level

24%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

25%

Brzi Brod at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brzi Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff