Paysandu 1–3 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

Paysandu

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Novorizontino

Ruan Ribeiro 34'

Waguininho 90+6'

Lucca 83'

Rodolfo 45+4' (pen)

7/29/2024

Serie B · Round 18Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Paysandu38%

×Draw27%

Novorizontino35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.21

Paysandu

1.26

Novorizontino

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

1.35

creates per match

1.14

1.28

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Paysandu

1.35

Novorizontino

1.14

allows per match

Paysandu

1.28

Novorizontino

1.17

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Paysandu-0.35scores less

Novorizontino-0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

65%

Paysandu or Novorizontino

73%

Draw or Novorizontino

62%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

16%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

72%

Paysandu 2+ goals

36%

Paysandu 3+ goals

13%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

70%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

34%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

52%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.35 + Novorizontino defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Novorizontino attack 1.14 + Paysandu defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paysandu scores more

38%

level

27%

Novorizontino scores more

35%

Paysandu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

Jordi

Novorizontino · G

7.9

Match Events

19'

Ruan Ribeiro← Nicolas

26'

Igor Formiga

29'

João Vieira

34'

Ruan Ribeiro

45+4'

RodolfoPenalty

55'

Jordi

61'

Juan CazaresPenalty cancelled

68'

Lucca← Rodolfo

68'

Marlon← Igor Formiga

68'

Geovane← Willian Farias

75'

Netinho← Val Soares

75'

Danilo Barcelos← Léo Tocantins

78'

Marlon

83'

Lucca↳ Geovane

84'

E. García← Paulinho Bóia

84'

Robinho← J. Cazares

85'

Juninho← Jean Dias

86'

Dantas← Eduardo

90+6'

Netinho

90+6'

Waguininho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduNovorizontino

Overview

66%Possession34%

16Total Shots10

10Corners2

9Fouls21

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target4

6Off Target5

3Blocked1

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

436Total Passes221

350Accurate Passes140

80%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls21

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1