Novorizontino 3–1 Paysandu: Result & Stats

Novorizontino

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paysandu

Nathan Fogaca 82', 60', 27'

Nicolas 13'

5/25/2025

Serie B · Round 9Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Novorizontino52%

×Draw25%

Paysandu23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovorizontinoExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Novorizontino

1.58

Paysandu

0.96

Novorizontino creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

1.69

creates per match

0.99

0.92

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Novorizontino

1.69

Paysandu

0.99

allows per match

Novorizontino

0.92

Paysandu

1.48

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Novorizontino-0.22scores less

Paysandu+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw

77%

Novorizontino or Paysandu

75%

Draw or Paysandu

48%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+

27%

Paysandu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals

79%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

47%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

21%

Paysandu 1+ goals

62%

Paysandu 2+ goals

25%

Paysandu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

69%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 19 matches

Paysandu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.69 + Paysandu defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.58

Paysandu attack 0.99 + Novorizontino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Novorizontino scores more

52%

level

25%

Paysandu scores more

23%

Novorizontino at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Nathan Fogaca

Novorizontino · F

10.0

Match Events

13'

Nicolas

16'

Leandro Vilela

27'

Nathan Fogaca↳ Marlon

41'

Matheus Vargas

46'

Luis Oyama← Willian Farias

51'

Dantas

54'

Reverson← Dudu Vieira

59'

O. Ruiz← Matheus Frizzo

59'

Waguininho← Pablo Dyego

60'

Nathan Fogaca

65'

Luan Freitas← Leandro Vilela

65'

Marcelinho← B. Borasi

74'

J. Benitez← Nicolas

82'

Nathan Fogaca

85'

Bruno Jose← Marlon

85'

Igor Formiga← Rodrigo Soares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NovorizontinoPaysandu

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots10

8Corners3

6Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots10

6On Target4

13Off Target3

3Blocked3

10Inside Box5

12Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

562Total Passes332

504Accurate Passes276

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3