Paysandu 2–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Coritiba

Jean Dias 90'

João Vieira 76' (pen)

Júnior Brumado 25'

10/24/2024

Serie B · Round 33Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu42%

×Draw27%

Coritiba32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.16

Paysandu

1.37

Coritiba

1.16

Paysandu creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.37

creates per match

1.09

1.22

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Paysandu

1.37

Coritiba

1.09

allows per match

Paysandu

1.22

Coritiba

1.37

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less

Coritiba-0.65scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

68%

Paysandu or Coritiba

73%

Draw or Coritiba

58%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

19%

Coritiba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

75%

Paysandu 2+ goals

40%

Paysandu 3+ goals

16%

Coritiba 1+ goals

69%

Coritiba 2+ goals

32%

Coritiba 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

57%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + Coritiba defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Coritiba attack 1.09 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paysandu scores more

42%

level

27%

Coritiba scores more

32%

Paysandu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

João Vieira

Paysandu · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

Robinho

25'

Júnior Brumado↳ Lucas Ronier

30'

Lucas Ronier

45+4'

Benjamín BorasiGoal cancelled

46'

Ruan Ribeiro← Nicolas

54'

Matheus Trindade

61'

Netinho← Robinho

64'

Figueiredo← Lucas Ronier

64'

Alef Manga← Matheus Frizzo

69'

Jean Dias← Paulinho Bóia

69'

Kevyn← Edílson

72'

Netinho

72'

Bryan BorgesPenalty confirmed

72'

Marcelo Benevenuto

76'

João VieiraPenalty

78'

Robson← Zé Gabriel

82'

Luan Freitas← B. Borasi

90+8'

Wesley Pomba

90+4'

Wesley Pomba← Júnior Brumado

90+4'

Matheus Bianqui← S. Gómez

90'

Jean Dias↳ Ruan Ribeiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduCoritiba

Overview

47%Possession53%

22Total Shots6

8Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots6

7On Target2

10Off Target2

5Blocked2

14Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

311Total Passes366

254Accurate Passes299

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2