Coritiba 1–1 Paysandu: Result & Stats | Serie B

Coritiba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paysandu

Lucas Ronier 45+1'

Nicolas 32'

7/7/2024

Serie B · Round 14Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coritiba50%

×Draw26%

Paysandu24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Coritiba

1.54

Paysandu

0.98

Coritiba creates 57% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.58

creates per match

1.02

0.94

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Coritiba

1.58

Paysandu

1.02

allows per match

Coritiba

0.94

Paysandu

1.51

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Coritiba-0.36scores less

Paysandu+0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

76%

Coritiba or Paysandu

74%

Draw or Paysandu

50%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

26%

Paysandu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

79%

Coritiba 2+ goals

45%

Coritiba 3+ goals

20%

Paysandu 1+ goals

62%

Paysandu 2+ goals

26%

Paysandu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

68%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.94 · 9 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.51 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.58 + Paysandu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Paysandu attack 1.02 + Coritiba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coritiba scores more

50%

level

26%

Paysandu scores more

24%

Coritiba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Lucas Ronier

Coritiba · F

7.9

Match Events

23'

Leandro Vilela

32'

Nicolas↳ Netinho

33'

Matheus Frizzo

45+1'

Lucas Ronier↳ Robson

46'

Edinho← Jean Dias

46'

Luan Freitas← Leandro Vilela

49'

NicolasGoal cancelled

59'

Vini Paulista← Everton Morelli

59'

Wesley Pomba← Figueiredo

64'

Robinho← Netinho

68'

Leandro Damião← Matheus Frizzo

71'

Juninho← E. García

79'

Wanderson

81'

Léo Pereira← Michel Macedo

84'

Leandro Damião

85'

Matheus Bianqui← S. Gómez

86'

Yago Ferreira← Lucas Ronier

90+5'

Maurício Antônio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaPaysandu

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots9

8Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

10Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

322Total Passes336

230Accurate Passes246

71%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Paysandu

Coritiba and Paysandu drew 1-1 in Serie B on July 7, 2024.

Goals: Nicolas (32'), Lucas Ronier (45+1').

Coritiba controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, Paraná.

Coritiba vs Paysandu — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Paysandu