Paysandu 1–0 Brusque: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brusque

E. García 80'

11/12/2024

Serie B · Round 36Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Paysandu45%

×Draw30%

Brusque25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.80

Paysandu

1.18

Brusque

0.80

Paysandu creates 47% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

0.92

creates per match

0.44

1.17

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Paysandu

0.92

Brusque

0.44

allows per match

Paysandu

1.17

Brusque

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paysandu+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

75%

Paysandu or Brusque

70%

Draw or Brusque

55%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

19%

Brusque wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

69%

Paysandu 2+ goals

33%

Paysandu 3+ goals

12%

Brusque 1+ goals

55%

Brusque 2+ goals

19%

Brusque 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

64%

Brusque (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Brusque away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 0.92 + Brusque defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Brusque attack 0.44 + Paysandu defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paysandu scores more

45%

level

30%

Brusque scores more

25%

Paysandu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Matheus Nogueira

Brusque · G

8.3

Match Events

37'

Edilson

46'

Kevyn← Edílson

48'

Dionísio← Paulinho

62'

Gabriel Pinheiro

67'

E. García← Ruan Ribeiro

71'

Diego Tavares← A. González

71'

Marcos Serrato← Diego Mathias

73'

Netinho← Luan Freitas

73'

Jean Dias← Robinho

80'

E. García↳ B. Borasi

85'

Carlão← Y. Quintana

86'

Luiz Henrique← J. Torres

86'

Guilherme Queiróz← Rodolfo Potiguar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduBrusque

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots15

11Corners4

16Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots15

10On Target2

4Off Target8

5Blocked5

8Inside Box6

11Outside Box9

Passing

61%Possession39%

354Total Passes220

286Accurate Passes151

81%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2