Brusque 1–0 Paysandu: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brusque

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Paysandu

Rodolfo Potiguar 12' (pen)

7/25/2024

Serie B · Round 17Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brusque52%

×Draw28%

Paysandu20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusqueExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.71

Brusque

1.36

Paysandu

0.71

Brusque creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

1.43

creates per match

1.13

0.29

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Brusque

1.43

Paysandu

1.13

allows per match

Brusque

0.29

Paysandu

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brusque+0.00on par

Paysandu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Brusque or draw

80%

Brusque or Paysandu

72%

Draw or Paysandu

48%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+

25%

Paysandu wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals

74%

Brusque 2+ goals

39%

Brusque 3+ goals

16%

Paysandu 1+ goals

51%

Paysandu 2+ goals

16%

Paysandu 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)

73%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 1.43 + Paysandu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Paysandu attack 1.13 + Brusque defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brusque scores more

52%

level

28%

Paysandu scores more

20%

Brusque at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Rodolfo Potiguar

Brusque · M

8.9

Match Events

8'

Lucas Maia

12'

Rodolfo PotiguarPenalty

17'

Edílson Júnior

24'

Biel← Nicolas

41'

Wanderson

45+8'

Marcos Serrato

45+8'

Marcos SerratoCard upgrade

59'

Diego Tavares← Olávio

59'

Dionísio← Cristovam

60'

Matheus Nogueira

61'

Edinho← Jean Dias

61'

Netinho← Leandro Vilela

63'

66'

67'

74'

75'

E. García← Paulinho Bóia

75'

Bryan← J. Cazares

80'

Ronei← Diego Mathias

80'

Osman Júnior← Paulinho Moccelin

90+3'

90+2'

90+3'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrusquePaysandu

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots16

1.81Expected Goals (xG)1.04

2Corners9

20Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots16

5On Target4

3Off Target6

2Blocked6

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

315Total Passes476

241Accurate Passes396

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls14

6Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards1

1Offsides1