Paysandu 0–1 America Mineiro: Result & Stats

Paysandu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

America Mineiro

Luan 37'

9/9/2017

Serie B · Round 23Estádio Leônidas Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu41%

×Draw28%

America Mineiro31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.04

Paysandu

1.24

America Mineiro

1.04

Paysandu creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.37

creates per match

0.87

1.22

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Paysandu

1.37

America Mineiro

0.87

allows per match

Paysandu

1.22

America Mineiro

1.11

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less

America Mineiro-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

69%

Paysandu or America Mineiro

72%

Draw or America Mineiro

59%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

18%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

71%

Paysandu 2+ goals

35%

Paysandu 3+ goals

13%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

65%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

28%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

57%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.11 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paysandu scores more

41%

level

28%

America Mineiro scores more

31%

Paysandu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Diego Ivo

Paysandu · D

7.6

Match Events

37'

Luan↳ Ernandes

45'

Ceará

51'

Rodrigo Andrade

55'

Lima

62'

Magno← Anselmo

62'

Marcão← Welinton

69'

Ayrton

70'

Peri

72'

Gerson Magrão← Renan Oliveira

77'

Lucas Taylor← Ayrton

80'

Peri

80'

Peri

88'

Hugo← Bill

90+3'

David← Ernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduAmerica

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots12

1Corners6

15Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots12

2On Target3

4Off Target4

1Blocked5

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

289Total Passes417

205Accurate Passes321

71%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides4