America Mineiro 2–2 Paysandu: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Paysandu

Julio Cesar 89'

Willian Bigode 86'

J. Benitez 70'

Rossi 58'

5/14/2025

Serie B · Round 7Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

America Mineiro44%

×Draw26%

Paysandu30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.17

America Mineiro

1.47

Paysandu

1.17

America Mineiro creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.43

creates per match

1.02

1.31

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.43

Paysandu

1.02

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.31

Paysandu

1.51

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

America Mineiro-0.32scores less

Paysandu+0.09on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

70%

America Mineiro or Paysandu

74%

Draw or Paysandu

56%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

21%

Paysandu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

77%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

43%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

18%

Paysandu 1+ goals

69%

Paysandu 2+ goals

33%

Paysandu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

59%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.51 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.43 + Paysandu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.47

Paysandu attack 1.02 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America Mineiro scores more

44%

level

26%

Paysandu scores more

30%

America Mineiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Willian Bigode

America Mineiro · F

7.7

Match Events

26'

Rossi

27'

Bryan Borges

29'

Miqueias

29'

MiqueiasCard upgrade

48'

André

51'

Mauricio Antonio← Y. Quintana

58'

Rossi

64'

Jhosefer← Felipe Amaral

64'

Giovanni← Rossi

70'

J. Benitez

74'

Renato Marques← Stenio

77'

J. Espinoza← J. Benitez

77'

Reverson← Leandro Vilela

77'

Eliel← Nicolas

81'

Yago Souza← Miqueias

81'

Gustavinho← F. Elizari

81'

Kauan Cristtyan← Figueiredo

86'

Willian Bigode

89'

Julio Cesar↳ Mariano

90+2'

Matheus Nogueira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaPaysandu

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots11

7Corners5

13Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots11

4On Target5

5Off Target5

5Blocked1

6Inside Box7

8Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

449Total Passes286

386Accurate Passes220

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2