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Paynesville vs Kallon Liberia — LFA First Division 2020

Paynesville
Paynesville
FT
5 – 0
Kallon Liberia
Kallon Liberia
10/16/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 6Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Paynesville54%
×Draw21%
Kallon Liberia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paynesville
2.13
Kallon Liberia
1.42

Paynesville creates 50% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

creates per match

Paynesville
2.02
Kallon Liberia
1.38

allows per match

Paynesville
1.45
Kallon Liberia
2.23

finishing

Paynesville+0.00on par
Kallon Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paynesville ↓

Kallon Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Paynesville or draw
75%
Paynesville or Kallon Liberia
79%
Draw or Kallon Liberia
46%

Winning margin

Paynesville wins by 2+
32%
Kallon Liberia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paynesville 1+ goals
88%
Paynesville 2+ goals
63%
Paynesville 3+ goals
35%
Kallon Liberia 1+ goals
76%
Kallon Liberia 2+ goals
41%
Kallon Liberia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Paynesville (draw refunded)
68%
Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paynesville at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Kallon Liberia away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paynesville attack 2.02 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kallon Liberia attack 1.38 + Paynesville defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Paynesville scores more
54%
level
21%
Kallon Liberia scores more
25%

Paynesville at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Paynesville 5–0 Kallon Liberia

Paynesville beat Kallon Liberia 5-0 in LFA First Division on October 16, 2023.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.