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Kallon Liberia vs Paynesville — LFA First Division 2020

Kallon Liberia
Kallon Liberia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Paynesville
Paynesville
3/10/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 21Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kallon Liberia35%
×Draw22%
Paynesville43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kallon Liberia
1.69
Paynesville
1.88

Paynesville creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

Kallon Liberia
1.69
Paynesville
1.52

allows per match

Kallon Liberia
2.23
Paynesville
1.70

finishing

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par
Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallon Liberia ↓

Paynesville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kallon Liberia or draw
57%
Kallon Liberia or Paynesville
78%
Draw or Paynesville
65%

Winning margin

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+
18%
Paynesville wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals
82%
Kallon Liberia 2+ goals
50%
Kallon Liberia 3+ goals
24%
Paynesville 1+ goals
85%
Paynesville 2+ goals
56%
Paynesville 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)
45%
Paynesville (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallon Liberia at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallon Liberia attack 1.69 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Paynesville attack 1.52 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kallon Liberia scores more
35%
level
22%
Paynesville scores more
43%

Paynesville at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Kallon Liberia 4–1 Paynesville

Kallon Liberia beat Paynesville 4-1 in LFA First Division on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.