Paynesville 3–3 Invincible Eleven: Result & Stats

Paynesville

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Invincible Eleven

2/16/2024

LFA First Division · Round 18Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Paynesville54%

×Draw22%

Invincible Eleven24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaynesvilleExpected goals in this matchInvincible Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.18

Paynesville

1.89

Invincible Eleven

1.18

Paynesville creates 60% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 51 away

2.02

creates per match

0.90

1.45

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Paynesville

2.02

Invincible Eleven

0.90

allows per match

Paynesville

1.45

Invincible Eleven

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paynesville+0.00on par

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paynesville ↓

Invincible Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Paynesville or draw

76%

Paynesville or Invincible Eleven

78%

Draw or Invincible Eleven

46%

Winning margin

Paynesville wins by 2+

31%

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Paynesville 1+ goals

85%

Paynesville 2+ goals

56%

Paynesville 3+ goals

29%

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals

69%

Invincible Eleven 2+ goals

33%

Invincible Eleven 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Paynesville (draw refunded)

69%

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paynesville at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paynesville attack 2.02 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.89

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Paynesville defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Paynesville scores more

54%

level

22%

Invincible Eleven scores more

24%

Paynesville at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff