Invincible Eleven 2–1 Paynesville: Result & Stats

Invincible Eleven

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Paynesville

2/19/2025

LFA First Division · Round 19Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Invincible Eleven38%

×Draw25%

Paynesville37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Invincible ElevenExpected goals in this matchPaynesville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.44

Invincible Eleven

1.45

Paynesville

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 40 away

1.20

creates per match

1.52

1.35

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Invincible Eleven

1.20

Paynesville

1.52

allows per match

Invincible Eleven

1.35

Paynesville

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Invincible Eleven ↓

Paynesville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Invincible Eleven or draw

63%

Invincible Eleven or Paynesville

75%

Draw or Paynesville

62%

Winning margin

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+

18%

Paynesville wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals

77%

Invincible Eleven 2+ goals

42%

Invincible Eleven 3+ goals

18%

Paynesville 1+ goals

76%

Paynesville 2+ goals

42%

Paynesville 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)

50%

Paynesville (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Invincible Eleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Invincible Eleven attack 1.20 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Paynesville attack 1.52 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Invincible Eleven scores more

38%

level

25%

Paynesville scores more

37%

Invincible Eleven at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Invincible Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff