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Paynesville vs Borough — LFA First Division 2020

Paynesville
Paynesville
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Borough
Borough
3/16/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Paynesville52%
×Draw22%
Borough27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paynesville
2.04
Borough
1.41

Paynesville creates 45% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 14 away

creates per match

Paynesville
2.02
Borough
1.36

allows per match

Paynesville
1.45
Borough
2.07

finishing

Paynesville+0.00on par
Borough+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paynesville ↓

Borough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Paynesville or draw
73%
Paynesville or Borough
78%
Draw or Borough
48%

Winning margin

Paynesville wins by 2+
30%
Borough wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Paynesville 1+ goals
87%
Paynesville 2+ goals
60%
Paynesville 3+ goals
33%
Borough 1+ goals
76%
Borough 2+ goals
41%
Borough 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Paynesville (draw refunded)
66%
Borough (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paynesville at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Borough away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paynesville attack 2.02 + Borough defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Borough attack 1.36 + Paynesville defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paynesville scores more
52%
level
22%
Borough scores more
27%

Paynesville at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paynesville vs Borough

Paynesville beat Borough 3-1 in LFA First Division on March 16, 2026.