Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Borough vs Paynesville — LFA First Division 2020

Borough
Borough
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paynesville
Paynesville
12/7/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Borough42%
×Draw25%
Paynesville33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borough
1.56
Paynesville
1.36

Borough creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

creates per match

Borough
1.43
Paynesville
1.52

allows per match

Borough
1.21
Paynesville
1.70

finishing

Borough+0.00on par
Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borough ↓

Paynesville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Borough or draw
67%
Borough or Paynesville
75%
Draw or Paynesville
58%

Winning margin

Borough wins by 2+
21%
Paynesville wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Borough 1+ goals
79%
Borough 2+ goals
46%
Borough 3+ goals
21%
Paynesville 1+ goals
74%
Paynesville 2+ goals
39%
Paynesville 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Borough (draw refunded)
56%
Paynesville (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borough at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borough attack 1.43 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Paynesville attack 1.52 + Borough defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Borough scores more
42%
level
25%
Paynesville scores more
33%

Borough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Borough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borough vs Paynesville

Paynesville beat Borough 1-0 in LFA First Division on December 7, 2025.