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Paynesville vs Black Man Warrior — LFA First Division 2020

Paynesville
Paynesville
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
11/12/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Paynesville49%
×Draw25%
Black Man Warrior27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paynesville
1.64
Black Man Warrior
1.15

Paynesville creates 43% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

creates per match

Paynesville
2.02
Black Man Warrior
0.85

allows per match

Paynesville
1.45
Black Man Warrior
1.26

finishing

Paynesville+0.00on par
Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paynesville ↓

Black Man Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Paynesville or draw
73%
Paynesville or Black Man Warrior
75%
Draw or Black Man Warrior
51%

Winning margin

Paynesville wins by 2+
26%
Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paynesville 1+ goals
81%
Paynesville 2+ goals
49%
Paynesville 3+ goals
23%
Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
68%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
32%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paynesville (draw refunded)
65%
Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paynesville at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paynesville attack 2.02 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.64

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + Paynesville defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paynesville scores more
49%
level
25%
Black Man Warrior scores more
27%

Paynesville at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Paynesville 1–0 Black Man Warrior

Paynesville beat Black Man Warrior 1-0 in LFA First Division on November 12, 2025.