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Black Man Warrior vs Paynesville — LFA First Division 2020

Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paynesville
Paynesville
1/25/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Black Man Warrior37%
×Draw25%
Paynesville37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Man Warrior
1.39
Paynesville
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

creates per match

Black Man Warrior
1.08
Paynesville
1.52

allows per match

Black Man Warrior
1.23
Paynesville
1.70

finishing

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par
Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Man Warrior ↓

Paynesville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Black Man Warrior or draw
63%
Black Man Warrior or Paynesville
75%
Draw or Paynesville
63%

Winning margin

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
17%
Paynesville wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
75%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
40%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
16%
Paynesville 1+ goals
75%
Paynesville 2+ goals
40%
Paynesville 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
50%
Paynesville (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Man Warrior at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Man Warrior attack 1.08 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.39

Paynesville attack 1.52 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Black Man Warrior scores more
37%
level
25%
Paynesville scores more
37%

Black Man Warrior at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Black Man Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Man Warrior vs Paynesville

Paynesville beat Black Man Warrior 1-0 in LFA First Division on January 25, 2026.