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Paykan vs Sanat Naft — Azadegan League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
12/28/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paykan42%
×Draw35%
Sanat Naft22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
0.94
Sanat Naft
0.59

Paykan creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Paykan
1.35
Sanat Naft
0.59

allows per match

Paykan
0.59
Sanat Naft
0.53

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Sanat Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
78%
Paykan or Sanat Naft
65%
Draw or Sanat Naft
58%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
16%
Sanat Naft wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
61%
Paykan 2+ goals
24%
Paykan 3+ goals
7%
Sanat Naft 1+ goals
45%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
12%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
66%
Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.59, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 1.35 + Sanat Naft defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sanat Naft attack 0.59 + Paykan defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paykan scores more
42%
level
35%
Sanat Naft scores more
22%

Paykan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Sanat Naft

Paykan and Sanat Naft drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on December 28, 2024.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.