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Paykan vs Sanat Naft — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
4/15/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 26Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Paykan38%
×Draw32%
Sanat Naft30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.00
Sanat Naft
0.86

Paykan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 91 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
Sanat Naft
0.69

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
Sanat Naft
1.22

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Sanat Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
70%
Paykan or Sanat Naft
68%
Draw or Sanat Naft
62%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
14%
Sanat Naft wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
63%
Paykan 2+ goals
26%
Paykan 3+ goals
8%
Sanat Naft 1+ goals
58%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
21%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
56%
Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paykan scores more
38%
level
32%
Sanat Naft scores more
30%

Paykan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Paykan 0–0 Sanat Naft

Paykan and Sanat Naft drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.