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Paykan vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
K. Eslami 28'
9/23/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paykan49%
×Draw30%
Niroye Zamini21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.22
Niroye Zamini
0.69

Paykan creates 77% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Paykan
1.35
Niroye Zamini
0.78

allows per match

Paykan
0.59
Niroye Zamini
1.08

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
79%
Paykan or Niroye Zamini
70%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
51%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
22%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
70%
Paykan 2+ goals
34%
Paykan 3+ goals
12%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
50%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
15%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
70%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 1.35 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Paykan defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paykan scores more
49%
level
30%
Niroye Zamini scores more
21%

Paykan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
K. Eslami

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Niroye Zamini

Paykan beat Niroye Zamini 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 23, 2024.

Goals: K. Eslami (28').

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.