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Niroye Zamini vs Paykan — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Paykan
Paykan
R. Fazooni 26'
S. Irankhah 67'
2/6/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Niroye Zamini25%
×Draw33%
Paykan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
0.71
Paykan
1.01

Paykan creates 42% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.77
Paykan
1.18

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.85
Paykan
0.65

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–118%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
58%
Niroye Zamini or Paykan
67%
Draw or Paykan
75%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
7%
Paykan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
51%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
16%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
4%
Paykan 1+ goals
64%
Paykan 2+ goals
27%
Paykan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
38%
Paykan (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Paykan away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.77 + Paykan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.71

Paykan attack 1.18 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
25%
level
33%
Paykan scores more
42%

Paykan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
R. Fazooni
67'
S. Irankhah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Niroye Zamini 1–1 Paykan

Niroye Zamini and Paykan drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 6, 2025.

Goals: R. Fazooni (26'), S. Irankhah (67').

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.