Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paykan vs Naft Bandar Abbas — Azadegan League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Bandar Abbas
Naft Bandar Abbas
S. Nariman 68'
E. Salehi 90+4'
I. Razani 89'
1/30/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Iran Khodro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paykan46%
×Draw32%
Naft Bandar Abbas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.11
Naft Bandar Abbas
0.67

Paykan creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Paykan
1.35
Naft Bandar Abbas
0.74

allows per match

Paykan
0.59
Naft Bandar Abbas
0.88

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Naft Bandar Abbas+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Naft Bandar Abbas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
78%
Paykan or Naft Bandar Abbas
68%
Draw or Naft Bandar Abbas
54%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
19%
Naft Bandar Abbas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
67%
Paykan 2+ goals
30%
Paykan 3+ goals
10%
Naft Bandar Abbas 1+ goals
49%
Naft Bandar Abbas 2+ goals
15%
Naft Bandar Abbas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
68%
Naft Bandar Abbas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Naft Bandar Abbas away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 1.35 + Naft Bandar Abbas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.11

Naft Bandar Abbas attack 0.74 + Paykan defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paykan scores more
46%
level
32%
Naft Bandar Abbas scores more
22%

Paykan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
S. Nariman
89'
I. Razani
90+4'
E. Salehi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Naft Bandar Abbas

Naft Bandar Abbas beat Paykan 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 30, 2025.

Goals: S. Nariman (68'), I. Razani (89'), E. Salehi (90+4').

The match was played at Iran Khodro Stadium in Karadj.