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Naft Bandar Abbas vs Paykan — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Bandar Abbas
Naft Bandar Abbas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paykan
Paykan
9/17/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Khalij Fars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Naft Bandar Abbas30%
×Draw34%
Paykan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Bandar Abbas
0.78
Paykan
0.88

Paykan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Naft Bandar Abbas
0.91
Paykan
1.18

allows per match

Naft Bandar Abbas
0.58
Paykan
0.65

finishing

Naft Bandar Abbas+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Bandar Abbas ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Naft Bandar Abbas or draw
64%
Naft Bandar Abbas or Paykan
66%
Draw or Paykan
70%

Winning margin

Naft Bandar Abbas wins by 2+
9%
Paykan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naft Bandar Abbas 1+ goals
54%
Naft Bandar Abbas 2+ goals
18%
Naft Bandar Abbas 3+ goals
4%
Paykan 1+ goals
59%
Paykan 2+ goals
22%
Paykan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naft Bandar Abbas (draw refunded)
46%
Paykan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Bandar Abbas at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Paykan away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Bandar Abbas attack 0.91 + Paykan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Paykan attack 1.18 + Naft Bandar Abbas defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Naft Bandar Abbas scores more
30%
level
34%
Paykan scores more
36%

Paykan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Naft Bandar Abbas 0–0 Paykan

Naft Bandar Abbas and Paykan drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Khalij Fars Stadium in Bandar-Abbas.