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Paykan vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
S. Nariman 80'
M. Ali Faramarzi 66'
M. Ghaseminejad 6'
5/18/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paykan43%
×Draw33%
Mes Kerman24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.04
Mes Kerman
0.68

Paykan creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Paykan
1.35
Mes Kerman
0.76

allows per match

Paykan
0.59
Mes Kerman
0.72

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
76%
Paykan or Mes Kerman
67%
Draw or Mes Kerman
57%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
17%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
65%
Paykan 2+ goals
28%
Paykan 3+ goals
9%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
49%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
15%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
65%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 1.35 + Mes Kerman defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Paykan defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Paykan scores more
43%
level
33%
Mes Kerman scores more
24%

Paykan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. Ghaseminejad
65'
A. Nasiri
66'
M. Ali Faramarzi
80'
S. Nariman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Paykan 2–1 Mes Kerman

Paykan beat Mes Kerman 2-1 in Azadegan League on May 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Ghaseminejad (6'), M. Ali Faramarzi (66'), S. Nariman (80').

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.